We can shape the future of work
06 Dec 2019
In partnership with
Hitachi
The world of work faces dramatic disruption: robots will
work alongside humans – wholly replacing some roles and potentially
reconfiguring our entire economic system. But there’s no need for panic,
says Wael Elrifai, vice president of solution engineering for Hitachi
Vantara – we’ve been through this situation before.
He
points to the canonical example – horse and buggies – noting that while
we have fewer blacksmiths than in the early 1900s, we have other roles
like mechanics, manufacturing and so on. “There was huge job growth, but
there was a massive temporary dislocation,” Elrifai says. “But it was
no good for the blacksmiths, was it?”. And that’s where the problem lies
with AI. A European Commission paper suggests that as many as 47 per
cent of highly automatable jobs will disappear by 2030, which Elrifai
notes will first impact low-skilled labour and women.
Dr
Kazuo Yano, Fellow, Hitachi Ltd, argues that humans shouldn’t be viewed
as being in direct competition with machines for work, but that automation and AI
should be used to augment what we can accomplish. “It’s a kind of human
empowerment, so our capability is extended,” Dr Yano says. “We should
be seeing AI and machines as a tool, just as we use a calculator or a
computer as a tool.”
Thankfully, we have time to
address such economic evolution. “I think, generally, there’s a feeling
that this is happening tomorrow or next year,” Elrifai says. In some
ways, the AI revolution has already started – the work kicked off in the
1950s – and we have a long transition period ahead of us.
Driverless
cars, for example, won’t be on the roads before 2030, he predicts. “So a
taxi driver is someone who will be dislocated over a long period of
time,” he says, though he notes they’re already facing disruption from
services such as Uber. “Whether it’s a robot taking the job or another
human, it’s the same thing for the driver who’s being replaced.”
The
economy can cope with disruption, but the challenge grows when the
change is more significant, impacts a larger industry or happens too
quickly. “Is this just going to happen piecemeal, industry by industry,
so there’s time to transition?” Elrifai wonders. “Or are we going to
face a massive shift across a million different industries at once?”
He points to transportation and logistics;
taxis included, that wider industry makes up more than a tenth of GDP
globally. Losing all of those jobs would have a significant global
impact, but reducing costs for transport could also spark a dramatic
decrease in the cost of living, with the biggest benefits accruing to
those most in need. That rebalancing needs to be considered. “It’s the
poor who are burdened by logistics costs,” he warns. Short-term job
losses for some may be the price of better lives for others in the
longer term, though the immediate blows can be softened by reskilling
people
and by financial support via ideas such as universal basic income.
and by financial support via ideas such as universal basic income.
To ensure the future of work is positive for everyone,
we need to expand the discussion beyond economists, policy wonks and
computer scientists, Elrifai adds. Alongside including in the debate
those most likely to be displaced, he argues there’s three other groups
who should be consulted: psychologists, educators and testing experts,
so we can better understand human capabilities.
Dr
Yano agrees, adding that we must also set clear outcomes regarding what
problems we’re actually trying to solve. But those who develop and
design AI may not be the best suited for that role. “Somebody who knows
algorithms or information science is not enough to set a good outcome,”
he says. “Conventionally, the outcome is simply money or profit, or
revenue or engagement of time, and that can create some very bad, biased
results.”
But that raises a wider question that
surrounds AI in work that’s yet to be answered, Elrifai says: “What do
we want from all of this? Lower cost of living? Increased leisure time?
Reduced inequality? Increased return on human labour?” We need not pick
only one, he says – we can focus on equality of outcome as well as
opportunity.
AI is one way to address the questions
around work, but the questions themselves aren’t new. “This is the most
exciting time for humanity – now is when we get to work on what it means
to be a human beyond doing what we’ve done for the last two million
years, which was essentially spending all of our time keeping fed,
warm and safe,” says Elrifai.
warm and safe,” says Elrifai.
“Companies such as Hitachi
are very much engaged in these discussions, working with the World
Economic Forum, the Alliance for IOT Innovation and many other
organisations to ensure a bright future for all of humanity. Topics like
ethical AI, the Future of Work, and what I call Humanity 3.0 are very
much at the core of the way we think about the future… We didn’t get to
be a 100-plus-year-old company by only living in the present.”
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