Maths can help predict chances of conceiving
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WARWICk:
Scientists claim to have developed a new mathematical model which can
help predict a couple's chances of becoming pregnant, on the basis of
how long they have been trying. The new study by University of Warwick and the London School of Economics may
also shed light on how long the couples should wait before seeking
medical help. Researchers found that, if the woman is aged 35, after
just six months of trying, her chance of getting pregnant in the next
cycle is then less than 10%. The analysis uses the number of menstrual
cycles over which the couple has been trying for a baby to determine a
probability of conception within the next month. "After several cycles
without pregnancy, it becomes relatively more likely that a couple have
low fertility. This is the main reason why it becomes less likely that
conception will occur in the next cycle," said Dr Peter Sozou of the
London School of Economics. When a woman is 25, it takes 13 menstrual
periods before her chance of pregnancy in each new cycle has declined to
below 10%, according to the model. The number of months required to
reach a conception chance below 10% cycle is 10 at age 30, and just six
at age 35. "There is quite a good chance of conception if they keep
trying," Sozou said.
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